A Powerful (And Underestimated) Predicator of Happiness

Any guesses?

Enjoyable activities? Time with friends? A vacation?

Nope. It’s expectations.

Researchers at University College London (Rutledge et al., 2014) have been working on a mathematical formula to predict moment-by-moment happiness (yes, psychology is going mathematical!)

Here’s the formula: (copy and paste from the original article – “The HappinessEquation: It Can Predicat How Good You Will Feel Moment-By-Moment)

The formula was tested with a sample size of 18,420 people around the world. Study participants were given a smart phone app that tracked people’s momentary happiness.

Three key findings emerged:  Happiness was influenced by:

• What they were doing beforehand
• What they were doing at the time
• Their expectations

Researchers essentially learned that based on recent events and expectations, their formula could predict how happy people could feel in the moment.

The biggest surprise of the study was the double-barrelled impact of expectations.

Take Home Message:

Expectations are crucial in happiness and trump real life rewards.  For example, if you get a new job, expectations towards that job will have a significant impact on how happy you are with the job.

Second, the expectations you have about a situation can take effect immediately. For instance, if you are planning to go for coffee with a friend and expect it to go well, your positive expectations lead to a boost in happiness immediately.

Third, the closer your expectations are to matching your experience, the happier you will feel. This doesn’t mean that you need to have deliberately lower expectation! It’s perfectly fine to be hopeful but keep expectations within the realm of reality to best promote feelings of happiness,